Blackjack

Strategy 

Developed by: Lawrence LIN, PhD (Statistics)

D=face card of dealer, P=sum of your cards

soft hand: has an ace (A) and has the flexibility of treating as 11 or 1. (When A has to be treated as 1, it is not a soft hand.)

HIT (for more card) when:

  • less than 18 on a soft hand (Go for 18+ on soft hand, except*)
  • D=9,10,A and less than 19 on a soft hand (Go for 19+ on soft hand)
  • D>=7 and P<=16 (16 or less is not good enough)
  • D=2,3 and P<=12 (13 or up is good enough)
  • D=4,5,6 and P<=11 (12 or up is good enough)
  • *: When you have a soft 18 (A+7) and D=3 to 6, double down your bet.

SPLIT when you have a pair of:

  • A or 8
  • 9 and D=2,3,4,5,6,8,9 (not 7)
  • 2,3,7 and D=2 to 7
  • 6 and D=2 to 6
  • 4 and D=5,6
  • Never SPLIT when you have a pair of 10 or 5

DOUBLE your bet when, except P=A+9, A+8 (too good to give up):

  • P=11
  • P=10 and D=2 to 9
  • P=9 and D=2 to 6
  • P=A+6 and D=2 to 6
  • P=A+7 and D=3 to 6
  • P=A+2, A+3, A+4, A+5 and D=4 to 6
  • Do not DOUBLE on your soft hand when you reach 19 or 20.
  • Do not DOUBLE when P<=8, unless you have one A.

 

Note

  • The system assumes no counting (memorizing cards).  You will come out ahead if you can count.  Never buy insurance unless you can count.
  • Some dealers stay on soft 17, some not.  Play against those who stay on soft 17.  Play against those who allow double down after splitting.
  • Dealer’s bust probability is 7.5%, 33%, 35%, 38%, 40%, 40%, 18%, 17%, 16%, or 15%, when its face card is A, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, or 10, respectively.
  • Your payback is 99.4 cents per dollar bet based on 10 million trials of computer simulation.
  • Bold strategies are easy to remember and important to follow.  Your payback is 98.5 cents per dollar bet if you simply follow the bold strategies.

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