Developed by: Lawrence LIN, PhD (Statistics)
D=face card of dealer, P=sum of your cards
soft hand: has an ace (A) and has the flexibility of treating as 11 or 1. (When A has to be treated as 1, it is not a soft hand.)
HIT (for more card) when:
- less than 18 on a soft hand (Go for 18+ on soft hand, except*)
- D=9,10,A and less than 19 on a soft hand (Go for 19+ on soft hand)
- D>=7 and P<=16 (16 or less is not good enough)
- D=2,3 and P<=12 (13 or up is good enough)
- D=4,5,6 and P<=11 (12 or up is good enough)
- *: When you have a soft 18 (A+7) and D=3 to 6, double down your bet.
SPLIT when you have a pair of:
- A or 8
- 9 and D=2,3,4,5,6,8,9 (not 7)
- 2,3,7 and D=2 to 7
- 6 and D=2 to 6
- 4 and D=5,6
- Never SPLIT when you have a pair of 10 or 5
DOUBLE your bet when, except P=A+9, A+8 (too good to give up):
- P=10 and D=2 to 9
- P=9 and D=2 to 6
- P=A+6 and D=2 to 6
- P=A+7 and D=3 to 6
- P=A+2, A+3, A+4, A+5 and D=4 to 6
- Do not DOUBLE on your soft hand when you reach 19 or 20.
- Do not DOUBLE when P<=8, unless you have one A.
- The system assumes no counting (memorizing cards). You will come out ahead if you can count. Never buy insurance unless you can count.
- Some dealers stay on soft 17, some not. Play against those who stay on soft 17. Play against those who allow double down after splitting.
- Dealer’s bust probability is 7.5%, 33%, 35%, 38%, 40%, 40%, 18%, 17%, 16%, or 15%, when its face card is A, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, or 10, respectively.
- Your payback is 99.4 cents per dollar bet based on 10 million trials of computer simulation.
- Bold strategies are easy to remember and important to follow. Your payback is 98.5 cents per dollar bet if you simply follow the bold strategies.